Thursday, September 10, 2009

Future Trends in Ship Size

For several years, designs have been available for vessels with capacities of up to about 8700 TEU. The design and construction of such vessels is well within the state of the art. In fact, a consensus among shipbuilders and ship operators is that a container ship able to load 15,000 TEU may well be a possibility. For such a ship to become a viable reality may require a complete rethinking of the way containers are handled to– and from the ship as well as to and from–and within the shoreside terminals.

Although the ship may be technologically feasible, there must be a level of trade sufficient to support such a vessel. Of equal or greater impor- tance, there must be shoreside facilities to match its capacity. The major problem is the need to minimize port time (There is a truism that a transportation asset, whether ship, aircraft, rail car, or truck must be in motion to assure its economic survival) In addition, and of great importance, the harbor waters, berths, and approach channels must be of sufficient depth and the berths themselves must be large enough and properly equipped to handle the larger (longer, wider, and deeper) vessel.

In the case of this mega-container ship, the terminal must have sufficient area to accommodate the larger number of boxes that will accumulate before the ship arrives and as she is being discharged and loaded; crane capacity (in terms of both the number of cranes and their cycle time) must be sufficient to minimize port stays; and, needless to say, the requirements for sufficient water depth and appropriate vessel berths must be considered.

We believe that we have not seen the practicable upper limit of container ship size in the 7000-TEU plus vessels now in existence. An eventual ceiling might be found around the 10,000 to 12,000 TEU level. Market forces will continue to influence the evolution of the system as long as it moves in a way that continues to provide improvements in cost, reliability, and speed and customer satisfaction.

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